The assessment found that as infectious disease outbreaks become more frequent they are also becoming more damaging, with widening health, economic, political and social impacts, and less capacity to recover from them. The report was launched in the margins of the 79th World Health Assembly.
The warning arrives amid an escalating crisis: on 15 May, the Democratic Republic of the Congo officially declared its 17th Ebola outbreak since 1976, and concurrently Uganda confirmed an outbreak of Bundibugyo virus disease following the identification of an imported case. By 16 May, WHO's Director-General determined that the outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern. The Bundibugyo strain poses particular challenges: unlike Ebola virus disease, there is no licensed vaccine or specific therapeutics against Bundibugyo virus, and more than 200 people had been infected, and more than 80 had died before the disease was identified.
The GPMB report analyses a decade of Public Health Emergencies of International Concern, from Ebola in West Africa to COVID-19 to mpox, assessing their impacts on health systems, economies and societies. The board concluded that pandemic risk is outpacing investments in preparedness, stating the world is not yet meaningfully safer despite lessons from recent outbreaks. On key measures – such as equitable access to diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics – the world is moving backwards. New initiatives have improved aspects of preparedness, but overall these efforts are being offset by the growing effects of rising geopolitical fragmentation, ecological disruption, and global travel, especially as development assistance falls to levels not seen since 2009.
The GPMB – which will conclude its mandate in 2026 – identifies three concrete priorities for political leaders: establish a permanent, independent monitoring mechanism to track pandemic risk; advance equitable access to life-saving vaccines, tests and treatments by concluding the Pandemic Agreement; and secure robust financing for both preparedness and 'Day Zero' response activities. According to Scimex, GPMB Co-Chair Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic said political leaders, industry and civil society can still change the trajectory of global preparedness if they turn their commitments into measurable progress before the next crisis strikes.
The warning highlights a troubling trajectory in global biosecurity: not only are outbreaks occurring more often, but their impact is worsening — suggesting that detection systems, containment capacity, or both are failing to keep pace with emerging threats. The board's assessment carries particular weight given its mandate to monitor global health security following the COVID-19 pandemic. While the report does not specify new mechanisms driving increased outbreak frequency, it underscores a structural vulnerability that could compound other global risks during periods of geopolitical instability or rapid technological change.